SF's Surge in Crime
The Results
Flagship stores like Nordstrom and Whole Foods, which have helped define the high-end atmosphere of San Francisco’s retail district for decades, have made headlines as they close their SF locations in 2023 due to “challenging operating conditions.” Along Market Street, where office space has historically been some of the most sought-after in the country, vacancy rates are estimated at 29.4%—up from 4% in early 2020.
Public perception of crime and the city’s unhoused population, too, has changed dramatically this year. One instance that made waves in the tech sphere earlier this year was the stabbing-death of 43-year-old executive Bob Lee, which was later discovered to be a motivated crime. In response, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk, whose company left SF in 2021 due to COVID-related reasons, tweeted, “Violent crime in SF is horrific…”
However, despite its current reputation, SF is actually closer to the bottom of the list of major cities in homicide rates, according to the latest 2021 FBI data. In April 2023, the city witnessed a fairly reasonable uptick to 12 homicides, from 10 in April 2022. The reported number of assault cases is up by 2% and robberies are up by 14%, but rape and human trafficking cases are significantly lowered.
San Francisco’s unhoused population has also decreased from the last Point-in-Time Count to the most recent—from 8,035 counted unhoused individuals in 2019 to 7,754 in 2022. Some believe that the disproportionate concern over the city’s “growing” unhoused population is in fact rooted in the increased visibility of homelessness, as foot traffic from other groups decreases.
The Causes
Despite some statistical evidence to the contrary, public perceptions paint San Francisco as the city where crime, homelessness, and business closures have caused an imminent death spiral.
As touched on earlier, the increasing rate of office vacancies, as more businesses move to work-from-home models and rent prices rise, is attributed as a major cause of this shift.
The pandemic has largely been blamed for the increase in unhoused populations, though a temporary injunction from a U.S. Magistrate may also have a strong impact on SF’s management. The injunction prohibits the city from evicting people from living in public spaces until the end of their lawsuit, which is propelled by the Coalition on Homelessness’s allegation that the city has displaced encampments without first providing adequate shelter. Still, a record high number of unhoused residents have entered shelters this year, indicating that the problem may still be one of limited shelter capacity and services.
Some theorize that a rise in crime is partially due to a newly-prosperous “ghost gun” market, which has seen a dramatic uptick in the Bay Area in the past few years. “Ghost guns” are firearms that are homemade and unserialized, and have been on the rise in California’s cities since the state started to mandate serial numbers for all firearms in 2018.
Still, many decry fentanyl as one of the leading causes of the city’s decay. SF’s opioid overdoses have already spiked this year to 845, beating the record 725 marked in 2022.
Through the obscuring cloud of public fear, it’s difficult to pinpoint specific causes of SF’s decline, or even to gauge if SF, relative to its peers, is declining at all.
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