The South China Sea Dispute
“The United States has long been, is, and always will be an Indo-Pacific nation.”
-Antony J. Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State
A Brief History
The South China Sea has been one of the most historically contested ocean territories in the world, hosting conflicts from its surrounding claimants, which includes China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, for centuries. During WWII, Japan seized the two major archipelagos in the sea, the Spratlys and the Paracels. After the war ended, however, the 1951 Treaty of Peace failed to specify who would gain possession of the territories.
In 1947, China issued a map detailing its territorial claims to the sea, which, at the time, were encompassed by a line of eleven dashes, which was later reduced to nine by Chairman Mao Zedong in recognition of Vietnam’s claims to the Gulf of Tonkin. China’s dotted demarcations have no coordinates, but are supported by claims of a centuries-long Chinese presence in the sea and its islands. These claims are mirrored by the government of Taiwan.
Since WWII, the waters have been bloodied by decades of maritime harassment and military skirmishes between nations.
The Contemporary Debate
In 2016, the UN Conference on Trade and Development estimated that over 21% of global trade, or over $3.37 trillion of goods, transited through the disputed waters. More than half of the world’s fishing vessels operate in the area, which has a rich supply of marine life.
Another interest is exploration for the purpose of potential offshore drilling, although there are several geological challenges to establishing oil infrastructure in the area such as typhoons, strong currents, and marine topological barriers to constructing pipelines. Nonetheless, surrounding stakeholders like China, Brunei, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have expressed interest in the area’s oil as a way to offset declining oil industries.
Current Events
The various stakeholders in the South China Sea debate are increasingly being overshadowed by a more fearsome actor: the United States. After 2016, when a UN tribunal conclusively rejected China’s nine-dash-line assertions in a case brought by the Philippines, China began its aggressive military occupation of the sea. The U.S. which has increasingly feared China’s growing power, has advanced a vested interest in a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Just a month ago, China published a new, ten-dash-line, angering both India and Nepal as it laid claim to new territories historically managed by either country. This line was also hotly contested by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Japan.
On Monday, October 2nd, the U.S. and the Philippines launched annual drills to patrol waters off of Manila, with the stated intent to assert national sovereignty against Chinese aggressors. With increasing U.S. military presence in the area, observers have become concerned that the wrong move could result in a large-scale conflict between the two nations, their military arsenals, and their respective litanies of allies.
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