The Redistricting Race to the 2026 Midterms

Currently, Republicans control the House with a razor thin majority, and Democrats only need to flip 3 seats to gain control. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the

midterms. These facts have led to a mid-decade redistricting war, ignited by President Trump’s push for Texas to redraw its maps before the 2026 midterms.

Redistricting is the process of redrawing state electoral districts to reapportion seats in the House, which normally occurs every 10 years after the census. But some states do not prohibit redistricting at other times, and based on their redistricting process, redrawing can be swift. Most states, like Texas, do this through their state legislatures. Others, like California, use nonpartisan independent commissions. 

After Governor Greg Abbott signed into law a new map that will give Republicans 5 seats in the midterms, California Governor Newsom announced he would balance the scales. However, since California law says the Citizens Redistricting Commission is in charge of drawing maps, voters will face a referendum in a November special election on whether or not to use new maps through 2030 that would add 5 Democratic seats. 

In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that federal courts “have no license to reallocate political power between the two major political parties,” so they can’t review gerrymandered districts. There are some legal limits to gerrymandering: they must be as close to equal in population as possible, and there cannot be intentional racial discrimination. But with Texas passing its gerrymandered maps, states might fall into a free-for-all of redistricting. Missouri is about to pass a map that will give them 1 more Republican seat. Ohio, Indiana, and Florida are among the states floating ideas of redistricting in favor of Republicans. Illinois and Maryland are doing the same for Democrats. But the outcome of the race is still unclear.

For one thing, Democratic states are saddled with laws and legislative makeups that prevent political motivations behind redistricting, making redrawing maps this close to the midterms difficult or impossible. For another, voters nationwide are not in favor of mid-decade redistricting, according to a poll from Common Cause. Furthermore, even if Prop 50 passes in California, which it is on track to do, Republicans’ increased redistricting efforts in other states will make it difficult for Democrats to even the scales. 

Still, Prop 50 passing will be much better for Democrats because, according to election analysts, Republican voters probably won’t turn out in such high numbers when Trump isn’t on the ballot. They say that Democrats might be able to win some competitive races if they remain in a good light with voters and if Trump’s approval rating remains low. 

One of the biggest questions around the redistricting fight is whether it’s worth it. For Democrats, it's a matter of keeping fair representation and letting Republicans retain their control of the House versus diluting some voices in order to keep Republicans from gerrymandering their way to power. So, is redistricting undemocratic in the current political climate? If it’s not going to actually make a big difference, what’s the point - and should voters believe it? Another question is, does the California map being temporary make a difference in how voters should think about Prop 50? Americans will have to wait for answers until 2026.